Settling Down

The Ada County housing market continued its slide in October; year-to-year unit sales, the most important statistics to follow, were down by 17%. The next most important statistic is the number of pending sales, a predictor of the near-term future, which was 20% lower than it was at the end of last October.

The slowing market produced a level of inventory 243% greater than at the end of last October. The inventory of new homes increased just 45% but the inventory of existing homes increased 435%, perhaps reflecting the interest of many homeowners in cashing in on the last several years of appreciation. Despite the increase in inventory, there is only a 39-day supply of available properties.

Why is the market slowing? Prices, of course. The average price of properties sold this October, at $603,000, was 14.8% higher than the properties sold last October, and the median price, at $525,000, was 18.5% higher.

The per square foot sold price of existing homes at $272 was, amazingly, 13% higher than the per square foot sold price of new homes. This price difference is the reverse of more normal markets in which newly constructed homes sell for more than existing homes.
The graph below shows month-by-month unit sales from January through October for 2020 and 2021 so you can see how the market has moved over the last two years…

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